DESCRIBING THE TOTAL NUMBER OF DIAGNOSED
CASES OF AIDS BY MEANS OF GEOSTATISTICS

Sueli Aparecida Mingoti[1]

 Arlene Guimarães Leite1

Gilmar Rosa1

§     ABSTRACT: In this paper a geostatistical model is fitted using the total number of diagnosed cases of AIDS in the 1996-1999 period as observed in the municipal districts of Minas Gerais state in Brazil. The prediction model is used to estimate the number of AIDS cases for municipal districts in Minas Gerais which did not present any reported cases in the period of study. It will be shown that there was no great difference between the Mingoti and Pantuzzo's (1998) semi-variogram model estimated by using the 1990-1995 AIDS data and the semi-variogram model estimated by using the 1996-1999 AIDS data. The discussion presented in this paper indicates that the geostatistical model has a good performance in describing the number of diagnosed cases of AIDS in Minas Gerais state.

§     KEYWORDS: Geostatistics; semi-variogram; prediction, AIDS.

 



[1]Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais – UFMG, CEP 30161-970, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil, E-mail: sueli@est.ufmg.br