transformation to the capture-recapture probabilities from bayesian model

Marcelo de PAULA [1]

Carlos Alberto Ribeiro DINIZ [2]

José Galvão LEITE 2

§    ABSTRACT: The proposal this paper is to present a transformation to the capture-recapture probability from capture-recapture process with objective that to verify possible the ins and outs in respect to bayesian model considered by Castledine (1981). For this on considered two different non informative priors for the capture probabilities from bayesian model considered by Castledine in order to compare the them posterior estimates with the posterior estimates that model where the capture probabilities was transformed. We present a simulation study considering different capture probabilities with objective to found this comparison. The population size posteriori bayesian estimates was made through several studies of stochastic simulation through MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain)

§    KEYWORDS: Capture-recapture process; closed population; bayesian analysis; stochastic simulation.

 



[1] Instituto de Ciências Ambientais e Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Universidade Federal da Bahia – UFBA, CEP: 45055-090, Vitória da Conquista, BA, Brasil. E-mail: marcelop@ufba.br

[2] Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de São Carlos – UFSCar, CEP: 13565-905, São Carlos, SP, Brasil. E-mail: dcad@power.ufscar.br / leite@ufscar.br