A Bayesian change-point model for describing partial semelparity of a neotropical didelphid marsupial

Cibele Queiroz DA-SILVA[1]

Antonio Eduardo GOMES1

Eduardo Guimarães MARTINS[2]

Vinicius BONATO[3]

Sergio Furtado dos REIS[4]

§    ABSTRACT: Post-reproductive survival defines the position of any given species in the continuum from semelparity, a condition in which males die after one breeding season and females can survive for a second year, to iteroparity, a condition in which males have multiple mating opportunities over the length of their adult lives. Based on a capture-recapture study for open populations, it was previously described that a neotropic didelphid marsupial, the Brazilian gracile mouse opossum (Gracilinanus microtarsus) is partially semelparous, a condition in which mortality after the first mating is high but graded over time, with a fraction of males surviving for a second breeding season. Here we explore Bayesian change-point models for detecting a shift on the availability over time of the males in the field due to partial semelparity. Such methodology allows for more precise specification of the time when postmating begins.

§    KEYWORDS: Bayesian methods;× change-point models; × MCMC; × semelparity × small mammals.

[1] Statistics Department, University of Brasilia, CEP: 70910-900,  Brasilia, DF, Brazil. E-mail: cibeleqs@unb.br / aegomes@unb.br

2  Graduate School of Ecology, University of Campinas, 13083-970, Campinas, Brazil. E-mail:

3 Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences,  Houston, 77030, Texas, USA. E-mail: vinibonato@yahoo.com.br

4 Biology Institute, University of Campinas, CEP: 13083-970, Campinas, Brazil. E-mail: sfreis@unicamp.br